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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still